The United Kingdom, Canada and Australia have recognized the state of Palestine before the UN General Assembly. This recognition is a major diplomatic milestone for the Palestinian independence movement. However, in reality, the two-state solution is now further away than ever before. There is almost a consensus among the parties concerned on this issue. The US media outlet CNN reported this news.
Wave of recognition
On Sunday, the three G7 countries formally recognized Palestine as a state. Among them, the United Kingdom and Canada are also permanent members of the UN Security Council. France is also expected to take the same step at the UN General Assembly this week. Portugal and Belgium have also made similar announcements earlier. As a result, the formal recognition by Western countries adds symbolic force to the demand for the formation of a Palestinian state.
But Yossi Mekelberg, an international relations expert at London-based Chatham House, said the chances of a Palestinian state being established in reality are now the lowest in three decades since the Oslo Accords. Israeli-Palestinian relations are at their worst since 1948.
Two-state solution is being lost in settlement expansion
The United Nations considers East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza to be the territory of a future Palestinian state. But in reality, these territories are divided into pieces. About 700,000 Israelis have settled in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Which are illegal under international law.
Israel's far-right government continues to approve new settlements. The controversial E-1 project has been relaunched, effectively splitting the West Bank in two. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has said bluntly that the idea of a Palestinian state is being buried by building new settlements.
"Every week, new illegal outposts are being built, new roads are being built. The annexation has actually begun. Violence is increasing, many Palestinian communities are being uprooted. This violence is increasing with the tacit support of the army and the police," warned Lior Amihai, executive director of the peace advocacy organization Peace Now.
Ruins in Gaza
The Israeli military operation in Gaza has been ongoing for more than a year and a half since October 7, 2023. International human rights organizations and even the United Nations Commission of Inquiry say that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. According to a former Israeli army chief, one in ten people in Gaza has been killed or injured. The number has exceeded 200,000.
Opposition from the United States and Israel
The United States and Israel have strongly criticized the new recognition, saying it amounts to "rewarding terrorism." But the US-Israeli pair is increasingly isolated. More than 140 countries around the world have now recognized Palestine, with the number of Western countries rapidly increasing.
Republican policymaker Elliot Abrams believes that these decisions are largely the result of domestic political pressure in Western countries. According to him, they will not actually benefit the Palestinians.
On the other hand, Professor Julie Norman of University College London believes that the Israeli government's public rejection has motivated countries such as the UK, Australia and France to take action. She said that as long as Israel maintains the occupation, resistance will continue. That is why the establishment of a Palestinian state is essential for Israel's security.
International pressures and constraints
Recognition creates certain clear obligations under international law. Professor Ardi Imseys of Queen's University in Canada said that after recognition, the state's territorial integrity, political independence and right to self-defense must be respected. Israel is currently violating all three of these.
But the question remains whether anything will happen in practice beyond symbolic recognition. The European Union is Israel's largest trading partner. Europe can bring about major changes through trade and diplomatic pressure if it wants to. Recently, some violent Israeli settlers have been brought under sanctions. There has also been talk of renegotiating the agreement with Israel.
Uncertainty of the future
Recognition also brings new responsibilities to the Palestinian Authority. "If you are a state, you have to behave differently," Meckleberg said. "Both sides have to make concessions."
Although it is difficult to imagine an independent Palestinian state given the current situation in the West Bank or Gaza, experts say the recognition at least sends a symbolic message that the world's major powers are not willing to wait any longer.
As a result, the important question at this moment is: will the symbolic message translate into real political change, or will the Palestinian dream of independence remain locked in uncertainty for a longer period of time?
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